In this posting and next, I am going to give 2 examples that show the brain is not wired to intuitively understand complex scenarios.
There are 34 people at a dinner party. How likely is it that 2 share a birthday?
Our intuition says – It is very unlikely – If we were at such a dinner party and we happened to discover that two of the guests shared a birthday, we would probably be quite surprised. “What are the chances”, we’d say to each other.
The chances are pretty high – Over 75% in this case.
And yet the much lauded “gut feeling” and intuition that so many people swear by would take us completely down the wrong path. Our brains aren’t wired for reasoning or maths, just another thing to be careful of as we try to tell the shit from the shine.
In case you were wondering;
At 23 guests it’s about 50%
At 58 guests it’s over 99%
